2009-01-29

Al Gore

Remember that line from An Inconvenient Truth, shortly after the ani­ma­tion of Lower Manhattan under­wa­ter, about how there are more things than just ter­ror­ism to be con­cerned about?

Turns out that’s even more pre­scient (via) than he was likely aware at the time.

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2009-01-06

Cooler, Wiser

Clearly, any spe­cific assis­tance [to ail­ing finan­cial insti­tu­tions] will have to include penal­ties for those man­agers who have left their insti­tu­tions over­ex­posed. Central bank cred­i­bil­ity in enforc­ing these penal­ties will go a long way in lim­it­ing moral haz­ard. Raghuram Rajan in 2005, explain­ing how to pick up the pieces after the 2008 finan­cial col­lapse (via Paul Krugman)

The first half of the paper is about how invest­ment man­ager com­pen­sa­tion struc­tures work, and what sort of behav­iors they end up incen­tiviz­ing. After that it’s the con­se­quences (i.e. our present-day eco­nomic cri­sis) and what to do about it. Fortunately for us, the cooler and wiser heads pre­vailed, and we were able to sim­ply hand those same man­agers an addi­tional $500bn with no strings attached — which they promptly added to their cap­i­tal reserves rather than lend­ing out like it was tac­itly believed they would.

Cooler and wiser heads like present-day Obama economic-council direc­tor Larry Summers, who said (appar­ently between his pub­lic insult­ing of women in sci­ence and sup­port for glad­i­a­to­r­ial cap­i­tal­ism in Russia) that Rajan was “misguided.”

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2008-11-25

Completely Unaware

“I hope the best and the bright­est who will be join­ing the new pres­i­dent will at least enter­tain the pos­si­bil­ity that a lot of what they think they know is wrong,” [Serial Errorist William] Kristol added. Theresa Cook and Kate Barrett, An Economic Transition, A Political Dance, ABC News

My ques­tion: why is any­one pre­tend­ing Bill Kristol has some­thing to say worth lis­ten­ing to?

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2008-11-09

Vision

Obama is ask­ing for ideas, and while I have no faith that they will go any­where, I sent one in anyways.

Namely, I’d like to see a sov­er­eign wealth fund ulti­mately respon­si­ble to the Treasury, under advise­ment of Commerce and Labor. The man­date for the orga­ni­za­tion would include:

  1. Ensuring restored mar­ket liq­uid­ity by sheer force of grav­ity (if pos­si­ble), or via the right of the stock­holder (as necessary).
  2. Providing ven­ture cap­i­tal to entre­pre­neurs, par­tic­u­larly in carbon-negative (e.g. clean energy, pub­lic tran­sit, etc.), eco­log­i­cally renew­ing (e.g. toxic waste cleanup/disposal, recy­cling, etc.), and high-tech (e.g. high-speed telecom­mu­ni­ca­tions) industries.
  3. A lender of last resort for sta­ble com­pa­nies dur­ing dire times (e.g. right now).

I also had points about cre­at­ing a fed­eral credit rat­ing agency, but I think the end goal would be bet­ter served by requir­ing out­side audits of credit rat­ings. I also had a point in there about invest­ing in exist­ing busi­nesses who add jobs in the U.S., but I think you’re guar­an­teed to have pretty severe cor­rup­tion in such an invest­ments pro­gram, to the point that it under­cuts the prof­itabil­ity of the program.

It isn’t a par­tic­u­larly rad­i­cal idea, most resource-rich coun­tries already have SWFs, and Sarkosy was stump­ing for this in Beijing weeks ago. Further, it’s my under­stand­ing that much of this author­ity is already held by the U.S. gov­ern­ment today. The pri­mary change is reor­ga­niz­ing the dis­parate author­i­ties into some­thing resem­bling an invest­ment bank — with the tax­payer as share­holder and a man­date for profitability.

Oversight must be absolutely air­tight, per­haps a well-funded adver­sar­ial orga­ni­za­tion within the exec­u­tive branch (a joint oper­a­tion by Justice and the SEC which pro­vides their inves­ti­ga­tors with a petri dish of what non­sense to look for in the pri­vate sec­tor — per­haps they will then be able to keep up with changes in the mar­ket?) in addi­tion to the more tra­di­tional over­sight exer­cised by Congress.

I can­not stress enough that the suc­cess of such a pro­gram — rather than it’s devo­lu­tion into a cookie jar of far­ci­cal pro­por­tions—requires that there be as many peo­ple as pos­si­ble who’s feif­doms depend on root­ing out cor­rup­tion in such a program.

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2008-09-22

Madness, Madness

Today the Bush admin­is­tra­tion and the Treasury depart­ment are try­ing to rush the Congress into the steeply priced finan­cial sec­tor bailout. This plan calls for the U.S. trea­sury to pur­chase all the bad debt sur­round­ing the sub-prime deriv­a­tives crater, with a cur­rent price-tag $700,000,000,000. I for one, would not be sur­prised if that fig­ure was a low-ball esti­mate, not least of which since even some senior Republicans believe it will cost at least $1t. Whatever your feel­ings on the sub­ject or the cost or other bailouts you want to add, there really isn’t a way to main­tain the finan­cial sys­tem with­out some kind of mas­sive fed­eral intervention.

The price tag, while beyond all com­pre­hen­sion, is prob­a­bly what it will end up cost­ing. And there are a lot of pet poli­cies I’d like to see enacted to pre­vent this sort of thing in the future: a Tobin tax; laws and insti­tu­tions designed specif­i­cally to pre­vent unreg­u­lated instru­ments; a seri­ous rethink­ing of bank­ing accounting/reporting pro­ce­dures (There has been a major, global credit/debt cri­sis every ten years since the 1970s. Something is insti­tu­tion­ally fucked.) Save it and restruc­ture it at the same thing

One thing I wouldn’t do, how­ever, is repeal exist­ing laws enacted dur­ing the New Deal to pro­tect aver­age peo­ple and busi­nesses from the dra­matic down­sides of a poorly-regulated finan­cial indus­try. Specifically, there was a law passed in 1933 that said “invest­ment banks must be sep­a­rate from com­mer­cial banks”. Effectively, this means that National City Bank can’t play the mar­kets, and Morgan Stanley can’t main­tain your sav­ings accounts.

This was done to cre­ate a fire­wall between the spec­u­la­tors and the savers, so when the invest­ment side of the bank got trounced by a mar­ket crash, they couldn’t raid the accounts of depos­i­tors to pay up. This is what has pre­vented the cri­sis from becom­ing a seri­ous, imme­di­ate, bread/butter issue for Americans right now.

According to Bloomberg, this pro­vi­sion is also on the chop­ping block for the bailout.

The money quotes:

“The announce­ment paves the way for the two New York-based firms, both of which will now be reg­u­lated by the Fed, to build their deposit base, poten­tially through acqui­si­tions. That will allow them to rely more heav­ily on deposits from retail cus­tomers instead of using money bor­rowed in the bond mar­ket — the lever­age that led to the undo­ing of Bear Stearns and Lehman.”

[…]

“‘Deposit-banking is king right now,’ said David Hendler, an ana­lyst at CreditSights Inc. in New York. ‘It’s the only mean­ing­ful critical-mass way to make money.’”

In other words, rather than try to cover their losses on bad debt by sell­ing bonds and get­ting swept away, now they will use the money in deposit accounts instead.

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